For years, Russia has sought to expand its naval influence in the Gulf of Aden-Red Sea (GARS) area by establishing a naval base there. This plan is heavily dependent on the Sudanese honoring their part in an already signed agreement with Russia, whose implementation was delayed by a civil war and Western pressure. Should Sudan fail to implement that agreement, Russia is looking for other options in Djibouti or Somaliland. It has been agreed that such developments have given rise to a new geopolitical race for the corner of U.S. interest in the region.
Impact of Sudan and Djibouti
Initially, Russia planned the naval base in Sudan, but while the agreement was delayed, Russia looked for another exit. Djibouti is strategically important because several countries operate military bases there, notably the United States. In general, by November 2023, reports emerged that Russia might broker an agreement between Djibouti, Ethiopia, and South Sudan. This might provide Russia with an opportunity to base its military in Djibouti. Otherwise, it might trade shares in South Sudan’s mining companies and export agricultural goods at low prices with the construction of oil pipelines through the region.
Consequences for the U.S. and Somaliland
Should the U.S. remove its forces from Djibouti and base them in Somaliland, it will deprive Djibouti of the revenues it derives from leasing its military base. Very well could Russia take over that base, just like Russia took control over a U.S. airbase in Niger May 2023. Should the U.S. remain in Djibouti, Russia might fix its eyes on Somaliland, though that could very well raise tensions with Somalia, which has diplomatic relations with Russia. The Somali government has repeatedly voiced strong oppositions on the plan.
The Future of Russia-Somaliland Relations
Russia seems to be choosing the path of agreement with Somaliland that may pave the way for official recognition. Such a base may therefore play an important role in Russia’s naval strategy in the Gulf of Aden-Red Sea area. While there are no confirmed reports of such matters being discussed during the recent diplomatic engagement, the prospect of Russia again strengthening its relations with Somaliland remains a very real possibility. Russia will, probably, seize upon the regional tectonic shifts, his final move will depend on turn of events in the Sudan and the position of the U.S., which will decide the fate of Russia’s military base in the Gulf of Aden.